Interdependencies

The World Economic Forum’s 2013 Global Risk Report highlighted the need to consider risks as a complex system of interconnections. Risk interdependencies need to be understood for prioritisation

The World Economic Forum’s 2013 Global Risk Report highlighted the need to consider risks as a complex system of interconnections. Risk interdependencies need to be understood for prioritisation and responses to be meaningful.

Figure 25 The complexity of interdependencies

Source: World Economic Forum

Interdependencies between social, environmental and economic risks were explored at a high level. The following table of interdependencies demonstrate how a primary event may cascade into a multi-dimensional problem. In the assessment of risks and prioritisation of actions, it is therefore important to reflect on which action relates to which cluster of risks and impacts.

Climate effects Cascading impacts and interdependencies Examples
Extreme heat events Impacts on infrastructure/asset performance in particular energy network assets
  • Stress on energy infrastructure (lines, substations) due to excessive heat
Higher energy and water demand
  • Increase in household, industry and council expenses (e.g. cooling costs)
  • Increase in industry costs (especially agriculture for irrigation)
  • Increased social hardship from cost of living pressures from increases in energy, water and food prices
  • Disruption to supply to businesses and residents due to load shedding and/or inadequate back-up facilities to provide for increased demand
Impacts on community health and well being (especially the vulnerable)
  • Health impacts on elderly, babies and young children, immobile and remote communities (reduced access to cooling)
  • Increased pressure on emergency management and recovery services (particularly for larger towns that may be relied upon)
  • Pressure on public spaces used as a heat refuges
  • Increased domestic violence and social isolation post events
  • Pressure on health services
  • Closure of schools and impact on working parents
  • Disruption of telecommunication services in extreme events (e.g. Warrnambool loss of service for 4-5 days)
  • Disruption to emergency response when dependency on sole telecommunications or other provider of services critical to emergency response
Loss of economic productivity from existing activities (agricultural)
  • Changed nature of agricultural activity (e.g. shift from grazing to cropping)
  • Potential loss of employment opportunities
  • Damage to crops
  • Decline in agricultural activity and productivity with fall in yields and animal impacts
  • Decline in tourism from degradation of ecotourism assets and accommodation
  • Decline in forestry
  • Displacement of local businesses
  • Reduction in economic growth
Impacts on ecosystem functioning, vegetation and natural assets (including wetlands, lakes, estuaries, bushland, coastal habitats)
  • Habitat loss
  • Reduced ecosystem services
  • Favorable conditions and habitat for some pests
  • Damage to vegetation including crops, bushland and timber plantations
  • Increased risk of blue green algae
  • Decrease in water yield and run-off due to increased evaporation
  • Increased soil salinity and eutrophication
  • Increase in acid sulphate soils

Increased bushfire risk

  • Fire damage to infrastructure and assets
  • Fire impacts on water quality and water yield
  • Impacts on biodiversity (fragmentation of habitats and destruction of refugia sites)
  • Increase in acid sulphate soils
  • Increased demand and stress on water assets e.g. dams for fire control
Cost of building resilience in assets and community
  • Increase in council and agency/partner costs service provision and asset management
  • Disruption to lagoon-based sewerage treatment plant operation
Sea level rise

Inundation of coastal land and properties

  • Inundation of coastal areas and reduced capacity of drainage network
  • Inundation of roads and in particular the Great Ocean Road, affecting access and egress routes across the Region, with impacts also on emergency response
  • Isolation of communities during floods and coastal inundation
  • Loss of public land buffer along the coast
  • Impacts on liabilities and apportionment
  • Policy uncertainty (e.g. newly introduced beneficiaries payment approaches in Flood Commission recommendations)
  • Impacts on tourism and loss of income especially caravan parks
  • Impacts on coastal crown land reservation purposes (surf clubs, port facilities, yacht clubs, conservation areas)
  • Increased potential pollution of waterways from septic tank contamination and health and ecosystem (e.g. fish kills) impacts
  • Inundation of coastal aquifers – impact on water supply
  • Erosion and exposure of coastal landfill (disused) causing pollution threat
Inundation of private properties
  • Decrease in land values (e.g. land degradation) in inundated areas
  • Loss of residential properties through coastal inundation and consequent rebuilding costs
  • Increased associated maintenance and remediation costs
  • Changes to infrastructure needs, including if there is retreat from an area the costs of redundant infrastructure and costs to service new areas
  • Increased development pressure on remaining viable land
Inundation of habitats
  • Loss of native flora and increase in invasive species and disease (loss of biodiversity)
  • Increase in salinity
  • Loss of mangrove habitat, salt marshes and reduced blue carbon capture
Loss of coastal land through erosion
  • Loss of residential and commercial properties through coastal erosion
Increased storminess, storm surge and wave run-up
  • Restricted access and egress to coastal areas (temporary and long term) including public assets (e.g. piers, lookouts)
  • Community unrest due to restricted access to coastal public area/assets
  • Impacts on tourism and loss of income especially caravan parks
Extreme rainfall events Inundation of low lying developed areas
  • Isolation of businesses and communities during floods and coastal inundation
  • Access and egress restricted due to inundation of transport routes
  • Isolation of communities during floods
  • Loss of residential and commercial properties through inundation and consequent rebuilding costs

Inundation of low lying natural areas

  • Increased fish kills in estuaries and rivers due to flood waters
Inundation of infrastructure
  • Failure of (low lying) water and utility infrastructure due to flash flooding
  • Increase in the costs of maintenance and repair of assets
  • Negative hygiene impacts (e.g. blocked sewerage systems, contaminated water)
Decreased annual rainfall Reductions in environmental water flows
  • Contamination of aquifer supplies
  • Reduced rainfall captured (utility assets and water tanks)
  • Impact on habitats and species
  • Loss of wetlands and associated impacts
  • Soil erosion and increased salinity
  • Loss of native flora and increase in invasive species and disease (loss of biodiversity/wetlands)
  • Impact on water quality (reduced flows, drainage capacities, overflows etc.)
  • Impact to infrastructure integrity and performance
  • Damage to road infrastructure – increase in linear cracking
  • Increase in maintenance costs and upgrades (drainage requirements)
Decrease in water yields
  • Increased water restrictions
  • Increased cost of water
  • Inability to water gardens, recreation areas, public spaces and playing fields
Loss of economic productivity from existing activities
  • Decline in agricultural, forestry and local business productivity (Inc. tourism)
  • Disruption to on ground works programs (e.g. councils, agencies as well as Corangamite and Glenelg Hopkins Catchment Management Authority works)
Increased landslips
  • Increased infrastructure costs
  • Increased maintenance and upgrade costs
Increased bushfire risk
  • Fire damage to infrastructure and assets
  • Fire impacts on water quality and water yield
  • Impacts on biodiversity (fragmentation of habitats and destruction of refugia sites)
  • Increase in acid sulphate soils
  • Increased demand and stress on water assets e.g. dams for fire control
Decrease in food security and potable water
  • Decline in agricultural, forestry and local business productivity (Inc. tourism)

Table 10 Cascading impacts and interdependencies

The key challenges

Regional priority projects