Climate change poses potential risks and costs to all of the Region’s ports particularly the high risk of damage or inundation of infrastructure from sea level rise and storm surges. For instance the Port of Portland is constrained by having a limited area for expansion and as an asset of national importance this poses particular challenges, which will only be exacerbated under climate change. The Port’s significance is demonstrated by the fact that it provides more than 30 per cent of Melbourne fresh fish supplies.

Significant regional economic opportunities will be placed at risk if this and other ports in the Region cannot expand and develop or the costs of doing so are prohibitive due to future climatic conditions such as sea level rise and associated storm surge. It will be critical to robustly assess the impacts on port infrastructure as part of a climate adaptation plan, where relevant. The Region’s ports would be examples of key assets that should be part of an Assets @ Risk Register for the Region and relevant municipalities.

The natural resources of the Region include a wealth of high quality and diverse natural assets which underpin the competitive advantages of the Region. The Region hosts native timber, fisheries, wind resources, natural gas, coal, stone resources and deep-water access. These all provide the basis for much of the Region’s economic success and opportunities. The Region contains some of Victoria’s best-known national parks, landscapes and cultural heritage places.

The Region’s natural resources and assets will be significantly impacted by projected extreme events and changes to the climate. This Project has highlighted the need for strengthened protection for these natural assets. The Region’s wealth of environment assets includes the Budj Bim National Heritage Landscape (which incorporates the Mount Eccles Lake Condah area, and the Tyrendarra Area), the Twelve Apostles Marine National Park and Port Campbell National Park, Lower Glenelg National Park, Mount Richmond National Park, the Grampians National Park, the Great Otway National Park, Bay of Islands Coastal Park, Cape Bridgewater, Discovery Bay, Cape Nelson Lighthouse, Western District lakes – Ramsar listed wetlands, Griffiths Island, Bonney Upwelling and Shipwreck coast.

It will be essential to accurately map and model data of environmental assets with climate exposure and sensitivity data to provide accurate information for prioritisation of adaptation actions. An expansion of large-scale vegetation planting (corridors, carbon farming, ecosystem services and offset market activities) was recognised by the Councils as an adaptation action with substantial co-benefits (sustainability, biodiversity conservation and carbon mitigation) that would need boosted resourcing into the future. For instance the Grampians National Park already has high sensitivity to current extreme heat and rainfall events that can cause landslides and infrastructure damage. This issue has been drawn out in a recent survey of tourists to the area, which for the first time cited reservations about visiting the Grampians as a result of recent landslides and bushfires. Recognising the most vulnerable of these assets is the first step to further protecting the Region’s highest value assets. Phase One of this Project has begun this investigation.

The dairy industry in the Barwon South West is Australia’s largest, with over 1000 farmers, accounting for 50 per cent of the Region’s exports, 23 per cent of the gross regional product and 25 per cent of Australia’s overall dairy production. Dairying companies in the Region include Warrnambool Cheese and Butter Company and Fonterra and there are approximately 6,000 people employed in the dairy processing sector.

As the Region becomes warmer and drier, the dairy industry will face challenges that may negatively impact communities and the local economy.

As the dairy industry in the Region is mainly pasture based and has a high demand for water, a warmer and drier climate will negatively affect the industry. Farmers may be forced to switch to grain feeding their herds which may consequently lead to lower cattle weights and milk yields. This could lead to a loss of employment opportunities in the Region.

However as changes in climate occur, farmers may switch to cropping as it becomes a more viable agricultural activity in existing dairying pastures.

These considerations call for strong engagement with the dairy industry to understand how climate risks are being factored into long term business strategies and what role Councils could take.

Tourism is one of the Barwon South West’s major industries. A rich variety of natural assets and supporting tourism infrastructure across the Region attracts thousands of tourists every year, with numbers rising. Major destinations include the iconic Great Ocean Road, the Twelve Apostles, the Grampians National Park, the Great Otway National Park, Geelong Waterfront and Bellarine Peninsula.

However as the Region becomes warmer and drier, with more extreme heat event days over 40oC (both single day events and three consecutive day events), and coastal towns such as Apollo Bay, Port Campbell, Geelong, Portland, Port Fairy, Queenscliff, Torquay and Warrnambool are exposed to inundation, the tourism industry may face new challenges.

Warmer and drier conditions could lead to movement of people from rural areas to regional centres placing greater demand on town services and infrastructure. If tourist numbers continue to trend upwards, such centres may experience an even greater demand on services and infrastructure. However as regional centres have the highest social sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity to changes in climate, meeting these demands may present a significant challenge.

Additionally tourists visit areas with the highest environmental sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity such as coastal towns and the Grampians and Great Otway National Parks and this may place increasing pressure on the environment and vital infrastructure servicing these areas. Conversely the changes in climate may lead to a decline in tourism, as the natural attractions (ecotourism assets) and infrastructure of the Region could be negatively impacted through events such as bushfires, landslides and coastal inundation.

The changing climate could also present opportunities to the industry including attracting visitors to warmer and drier coastal areas, and to urban areas such as Queenscliff and Geelong, that have the least sensitivity and greatest adaptive capacity from an environmental perspective. More research on the impacts on future demographic and tourist activity drivers linked to climate change will assist Councils in planning future service and resource requirements.

The forestry industry in the Barwon South West is a significant employer in the Region. However as the Region becomes warmer and drier the forestry industry will face challenges that may negatively impact communities and the local economy.

The industry may experience declining yields through less and/or lighter logs being produced through lower growth rates from a warmer and drier climate and degrading soil conditions from erosion and salinity issues. Additionally plantations could be lost through bushfires, which may increase in frequency and intensity as the Region becomes warmer and drier. Compounding this impact is the fact that the highest environmental sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity of the Region correlates to those municipalities where forestry exists. Overall such factors could decrease the viability of the industry and lead to a loss of employment opportunities in the Region.

A potentially mitigating factor is that forestry is currently undertaken in areas with the coolest mean temperatures and least change in extreme heat events in the Region.

The Great South Coast Regional Strategic Plan (2012) recognises the risks to natural resources, environmental and cultural heritage assets and agricultural systems from the potential impacts of climate change, along with potential opportunities for economic diversification such as new industries. It acknowledges that more information is needed on the likely impacts of climate change on existing and emerging industries across the Region to assist with strategic land use planning such as the recent local coastal hazard assessment undertaken for Port Fairy. It states that there needs to be flexible approaches to land use planning in order to adapt to land use changes induced by changing climatic conditions. It gives particular attention to bushfire risk, which will be exacerbated by climate change, stating authorities should prioritise human life with regard to bushfire risk management and direct development to locations of lower bushfire risk. The Plan does not however give mention to the current gap in data relating to bushfire risk and future climate. It also fails, despite these acknowledgements of the risk from future climatic conditions, to consider climate proofing in relation to the Plan’s main recommendations on infrastructure and economic development.

The G21 Geelong Region Plan (2013) is also cognisant of the impacts of climate change on the environment, water resources and natural assets and has designed a number of policy responses to mitigate these risks. In particular, the Plan has a focus on transport, energy, infrastructure, biological research and waste. A key response action, which has also been identified through this Project, is the establishment of critical thresholds, to determine the necessity of protection methods for infrastructure.

The cropping industry which consists of growing and harvesting a variety of crops is a significant part of the agricultural activity of the Barwon South West. Broadacre cropping has grown over recent years with a variety of cereal crops, oilseeds (e.g. canola), pulses, vegetables and orchard fruits being produced. Together these activities contributed approximately $400 million to the local economy in 2011.

As the Region becomes warmer and drier, challenges to cropping activities may arise. Negative impacts on agricultural land from grassfires which could increase in frequency and intensity due to warmer and drier weather conditions may occur. Additionally negative impacts may arise from worsening soil quality from erosion and increases in salinity.

However as the Region’s climate becomes warmer and drier, some cropping activities may become a more viable agricultural activity than dairying, and therefore be an economic opportunity for the Region. The opportunity to plant crops that are more resilient to warmer and drier weather and poorer quality soils may also mitigate the negative economic climate impacts on the Region.

Additionally opportunities for using broadacre cropping outputs as biomass for biofuels and bio-energy also exist. The production of bio-fuels and bio-energy represent a potential growth industry of the Barwon South West.